---
title: "HW 5"
author: "Name here"
date: "Due October 12, 2018"
output: html_document
---

Please use D2L to turn in both the PDF output and your R Markdown file. Include your code in line in the document.


#### Q1. Nile River (20 points)
For this question compare forecasting with the Holt-Winters method and an AR process.

The code below partitions the Nile river flows into two datasets. The first contains annual measurements from 1871 to 1960 and the second has 1961 to 1970.
```{r}
library(datasets)
nile1871_1960 <- Nile[1:90]
nile1961_1970 <- Nile[91:100]
```

Use this larger dataset to fit 

- A Holt-Winters type model and
- AR model.

1. For each model summarize the model parameters and then predict the ten observations in the second dataset.

2. Compare the predictions from the two models with the actual values in the second dataset. Discuss the results.


#### Q2. 536 (Project Proposal)

Write a half page project proposal. Include a summary of the dataset, the question you seek to answer, and at least one graphic detailing some aspect of the dataset. Please also submit a subset of your datafile.